As sure as the sun rises in the east, the start of each year brings with it a fresh wave of assurances from the “gurus” who appear in the financial media that this year will be a stock picker’s year. And as sure as the sun sets in the west, the year invariably ends with…
In 2014, the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index lost 0.6 percent, underperforming the S&P 500 Index by 14.3 percentage points. And while the index outperformed foreign equities, which generally lost between about 2 and 5 percent, it underperformed virtually riskless one-year Treasury notes, which returned 0.2 percent. It also underperformed a typical, globally diversified and…
An overwhelming amount of evidence exists to clearly demonstrate that, in aggregate, active management is a loser’s game. And this is true regardless of whether markets are efficient or inefficient, or whether they are in a bull or bear phase. But if the evidence doesn’t convince you, perhaps some of the market’s smartest and most-well-respected…
The investment successes of the Yale Endowment led many other endowments, foundations and even high-net-worth individuals to consider adopting the so-called “Yale Model.” The model included a focus on alternative investments and attempts to capture the liquidity premium available in illiquid investments, such as private equity and hedge funds. In his new book, Asset Management:…
Although not for novice investors, Andrew Ang’s new book, “Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing,” represents a comprehensive, clearly written and accessible review of the latest thinking in modern financial theory. It provides some important lessons that investors can learn and implement in constructing well-diversified portfolios. I thought it worth sharing some of…
As we have discussed, the investment success of the Yale Endowment led many endowments, foundations and even high-net-worth individuals to consider adopting the strategies utilized in the so-called “Yale Model.” This included a focus on alternative investments and attempts to capture the liquidity premium available in illiquid investments, such as private equity and hedge funds….
In doing some related research, I came across a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research paper that I thought was worth sharing, especially in light of the tendency in recent years for many investors to stretch for yield. Over the long term, the correlation of Treasury bonds (whether they are short-, intermediate- or long-term) to…
There are many well-known anomalies in finance. The most notable of these anomalies include the momentum effect, the low-volatility effect (in which high-volatility stocks produce lower returns on average than low-volatility stocks) and the poor performance of IPOs, penny stocks, stocks in bankruptcy and small growth stocks with low profits. But perhaps the biggest anomaly…
Behavioral finance is a fascinating field that combines psychology with investing. And one of the insights provided from the research is that some individuals want more from their investments than just returns. Some people make investments for the same reason they buy Rolex watches and oversized Gucci bags, labels proudly displayed. Just like with their…
What was the biggest surprise to hit the markets in 2014? I think most investors would tell you it was either that interest rates fell or that the price of a barrel of oil fell by half. My own view is that there was a far bigger one. For the 12 months ended August 2014,…
While Wall Street investment firms have done a very poor job of delivering good risk-adjusted returns to investors, their well-tuned marketing machines have done a great job creating demand for products where none should really exist. Their latest creation is a type of investment offering referred to as “smart beta.” To ensure you understand why…
The superior performance of low-volatility stocks—the low-volatility anomaly—has been documented to exist in equity markets around the globe. And since its discovery, a good amount of academic research has attempted to determine both its origins and whether or not it will continue to persist. Among that research is a December 2013 paper, “A Study of…
Nils Friewald, Christian Wagner and Josef Zechner—authors of the study “The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns,” which appears in the December 2014 edition of the Journal of Finance—studied the relationship between a firm’s default risk and that firm’s equity premium. Their study covered the 10-year period from 2001 through 2010, and estimated…
One of the biggest problems facing the first formal asset pricing model developed by financial economists, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), was that it predicts a positive relationship between risk and return. Empirical studies have found that the actual relationship is flat, or even negative. But the superior performance of low-volatility stocks was documented…
Earlier this week, we discussed the first six of a total 12 lessons that the markets taught us in 2014 about prudent investment strategies. To recap: Lesson 1: Active management is a loser’s game Lesson 2: The economy and the stock market are very different things Lesson 3: Diversification is always working; sometimes you like…
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